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Ypiranga-RS vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Ypiranga-RS
Ypiranga-RSadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juventude II
Juventude II
11/15/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Semi-finalsEstádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ypiranga-RS75%
×Draw16%
Juventude II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga-RS
2.38
Juventude II
0.70

Ypiranga-RS creates 240% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ypiranga-RS
2.67
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

Ypiranga-RS
0.67
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-RS ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ypiranga-RS or draw
91%
Ypiranga-RS or Juventude II
84%
Draw or Juventude II
25%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+
51%
Juventude II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals
91%
Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals
68%
Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals
42%
Juventude II 1+ goals
50%
Juventude II 2+ goals
16%
Juventude II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)
89%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-RS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-RS attack 2.67 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.38

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Ypiranga-RS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ypiranga-RS scores more
75%
level
16%
Juventude II scores more
9%

Ypiranga-RS at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ypiranga-RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Ypiranga-RS 3–1 Juventude II

Ypiranga-RS beat Juventude II 3-1 in Copa Gaúcha on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa in Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul.