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Ypiranga-RS vs Gremio 2 — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Ypiranga-RS
Ypiranga-RS
FT
0 – 1
Gremio 2
Gremio 2
9/5/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga-RS65%
×Draw23%
Gremio 212%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga-RS
1.71
Gremio 2
0.58

Ypiranga-RS creates 195% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ypiranga-RS
2.67
Gremio 2
0.50

allows per match

Ypiranga-RS
0.67
Gremio 2
0.75

finishing

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par
Gremio 2+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-RS ↓

Gremio 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ypiranga-RS or draw
88%
Ypiranga-RS or Gremio 2
77%
Draw or Gremio 2
35%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+
37%
Gremio 2 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals
82%
Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals
51%
Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals
24%
Gremio 2 1+ goals
44%
Gremio 2 2+ goals
12%
Gremio 2 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)
84%
Gremio 2 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-RS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Gremio 2 away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-RS attack 2.67 + Gremio 2 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gremio 2 attack 0.50 + Ypiranga-RS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ypiranga-RS scores more
65%
level
23%
Gremio 2 scores more
12%

Ypiranga-RS at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ypiranga-RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Ypiranga-RS 0–1 Gremio 2

Gremio 2 beat Ypiranga-RS 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa in Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul.