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Ypiranga-PE vs Oratório — League #521 2026

Ypiranga-PE
Ypiranga-PE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oratório
Oratório
3/15/2025League #521League #521 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Milton Corrêa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga-PE19%
×Draw23%
Oratório58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga-PE
0.88
Oratório
1.75

Oratório creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ypiranga-PE
1.00
Oratório
1.50

allows per match

Ypiranga-PE
2.00
Oratório
0.75

finishing

Ypiranga-PE+0.00on par
Oratório+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-PE ↓

Oratório →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ypiranga-PE or draw
42%
Ypiranga-PE or Oratório
77%
Draw or Oratório
81%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-PE wins by 2+
6%
Oratório wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ypiranga-PE 1+ goals
59%
Ypiranga-PE 2+ goals
22%
Ypiranga-PE 3+ goals
6%
Oratório 1+ goals
83%
Oratório 2+ goals
52%
Oratório 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-PE (draw refunded)
24%
Oratório (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-PE at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Oratório away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-PE attack 1.00 + Oratório defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Oratório attack 1.50 + Ypiranga-PE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ypiranga-PE scores more
19%
level
23%
Oratório scores more
58%

Oratório at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oratório will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ypiranga-PE vs Oratório

Oratório beat Ypiranga-PE 2-1 in League #521 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Milton Corrêa in Macapá, Amapá.