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Ypiranga BA vs Teixeira de Freitas — Baiano - 2 2019

Ypiranga BA
Ypiranga BA
FT
3 – 0
Teixeira de Freitas
Teixeira de Freitas
6/21/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga BA85%
×Draw12%
Teixeira de Freitas3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga BA
2.38
Teixeira de Freitas
0.25

Ypiranga BA creates 852% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ypiranga BA
1.50
Teixeira de Freitas
0.00

allows per match

Ypiranga BA
0.50
Teixeira de Freitas
3.25

finishing

Ypiranga BA+0.00on par
Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA or draw
97%
Ypiranga BA or Teixeira de Freitas
88%
Draw or Teixeira de Freitas
15%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA wins by 2+
62%
Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA 1+ goals
91%
Ypiranga BA 2+ goals
68%
Ypiranga BA 3+ goals
42%
Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals
22%
Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals
3%
Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA (draw refunded)
97%
Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA attack 1.50 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Ypiranga BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Ypiranga BA scores more
85%
level
12%
Teixeira de Freitas scores more
3%

Ypiranga BA at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Ypiranga BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Ypiranga BA 3–0 Teixeira de Freitas

Ypiranga BA beat Teixeira de Freitas 3-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.