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Ypiranga BA vs SSA — Baiano - 2 2019

Ypiranga BA
Ypiranga BA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SSA
SSA
5/3/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga BA44%
×Draw30%
SSA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga BA
1.18
SSA
0.82

Ypiranga BA creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ypiranga BA
1.50
SSA
1.14

allows per match

Ypiranga BA
0.50
SSA
0.86

finishing

Ypiranga BA+0.00on par
SSA+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA ↓

SSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA or draw
74%
Ypiranga BA or SSA
70%
Draw or SSA
56%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA wins by 2+
19%
SSA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA 1+ goals
69%
Ypiranga BA 2+ goals
33%
Ypiranga BA 3+ goals
12%
SSA 1+ goals
56%
SSA 2+ goals
20%
SSA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA (draw refunded)
63%
SSA (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

SSA away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA attack 1.50 + SSA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

SSA attack 1.14 + Ypiranga BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ypiranga BA scores more
44%
level
30%
SSA scores more
26%

Ypiranga BA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ypiranga BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ypiranga BA vs SSA

Ypiranga BA and SSA drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza in Feira de Santana, Bahia.