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Ypiranga BA vs Leonico — Baiano - 2 2019

Ypiranga BA
Ypiranga BA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leonico
Leonico
6/8/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga BA60%
×Draw23%
Leonico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga BA
1.80
Leonico
0.83

Ypiranga BA creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ypiranga BA
1.50
Leonico
1.17

allows per match

Ypiranga BA
0.50
Leonico
2.11

finishing

Ypiranga BA+0.00on par
Leonico+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA ↓

Leonico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA or draw
83%
Ypiranga BA or Leonico
77%
Draw or Leonico
40%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA wins by 2+
35%
Leonico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA 1+ goals
83%
Ypiranga BA 2+ goals
54%
Ypiranga BA 3+ goals
27%
Leonico 1+ goals
56%
Leonico 2+ goals
20%
Leonico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA (draw refunded)
78%
Leonico (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Leonico away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA attack 1.50 + Leonico defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Leonico attack 1.17 + Ypiranga BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ypiranga BA scores more
60%
level
23%
Leonico scores more
17%

Ypiranga BA at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ypiranga BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Ypiranga BA 2–1 Leonico

Ypiranga BA beat Leonico 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.