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Ypiranga BA U20 vs Leonico U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Ypiranga BA U20
Ypiranga BA U20
FT
2 – 1
Leonico U20
Leonico U20
4/12/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ypiranga BA U2061%
×Draw23%
Leonico U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga BA U20
1.79
Leonico U20
0.81

Ypiranga BA U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ypiranga BA U20
0.69
Leonico U20
0.75

allows per match

Ypiranga BA U20
0.88
Leonico U20
2.90

finishing

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par
Leonico U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA U20 ↓

Leonico U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA U20 or draw
83%
Ypiranga BA U20 or Leonico U20
77%
Draw or Leonico U20
39%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+
35%
Leonico U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals
83%
Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals
53%
Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals
26%
Leonico U20 1+ goals
56%
Leonico U20 2+ goals
19%
Leonico U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Leonico U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA U20 at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Leonico U20 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.69 + Leonico U20 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Leonico U20 attack 0.75 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more
61%
level
23%
Leonico U20 scores more
17%

Ypiranga BA U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ypiranga BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ypiranga BA U20 vs Leonico U20

Ypiranga BA U20 beat Leonico U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite in Salvador, Bahia.