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Ypiranga BA U20 vs Juazeirense U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Ypiranga BA U20
Ypiranga BA U20
FT
0 – 1
Juazeirense U20
Juazeirense U20
4/13/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ypiranga BA U2052%
×Draw24%
Juazeirense U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga BA U20
1.67
Juazeirense U20
1.04

Ypiranga BA U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ypiranga BA U20
0.69
Juazeirense U20
1.20

allows per match

Ypiranga BA U20
0.88
Juazeirense U20
2.65

finishing

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par
Juazeirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA U20 ↓

Juazeirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA U20 or draw
76%
Ypiranga BA U20 or Juazeirense U20
76%
Draw or Juazeirense U20
48%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+
28%
Juazeirense U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals
81%
Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals
50%
Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals
23%
Juazeirense U20 1+ goals
65%
Juazeirense U20 2+ goals
28%
Juazeirense U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Juazeirense U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA U20 at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Juazeirense U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.69 + Juazeirense U20 defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Juazeirense U20 attack 1.20 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more
52%
level
24%
Juazeirense U20 scores more
24%

Ypiranga BA U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ypiranga BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Ypiranga BA U20 0–1 Juazeirense U20

Juazeirense U20 beat Ypiranga BA U20 1-0 in Baiano U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite in Salvador, Bahia.