Ypiranga BA U20 0–1 Jacuipense U20: Result & Stats

Ypiranga BA U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jacuipense U20

5/4/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ypiranga BA U2030%

×Draw30%

Jacuipense U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ypiranga BA U20Expected goals in this matchJacuipense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.13

Ypiranga BA U20

0.93

Jacuipense U20

1.13

Jacuipense U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

0.69

creates per match

1.38

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ypiranga BA U20

0.69

Jacuipense U20

1.38

allows per match

Ypiranga BA U20

0.88

Jacuipense U20

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Jacuipense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA U20 ↓

Jacuipense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA U20 or draw

60%

Ypiranga BA U20 or Jacuipense U20

70%

Draw or Jacuipense U20

70%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+

11%

Jacuipense U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals

61%

Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals

24%

Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals

7%

Jacuipense U20 1+ goals

68%

Jacuipense U20 2+ goals

31%

Jacuipense U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Jacuipense U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA U20 at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Jacuipense U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.69 + Jacuipense U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Jacuipense U20 attack 1.38 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more

30%

level

30%

Jacuipense U20 scores more

40%

Jacuipense U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jacuipense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff