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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Stade Marocain — Cup 2020

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
4/6/2025CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid50%
×Draw30%
Stade Marocain20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.25
Stade Marocain
0.68

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.00
Stade Marocain
0.75

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.60
Stade Marocain
1.50

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
80%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Stade Marocain
70%
Draw or Stade Marocain
50%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
23%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
71%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
36%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
13%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
49%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
15%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
71%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.00 + Stade Marocain defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stade Marocain attack 0.75 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
50%
level
30%
Stade Marocain scores more
20%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Stade Marocain

Stade Marocain beat Youssoufia Berrechid 1-0 in Cup on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.