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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Raja Casablanca — Cup 2020

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablancaadvanced
3/15/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid33%
×Draw32%
Raja Casablanca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.93
Raja Casablanca
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.00
Raja Casablanca
1.29

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.60
Raja Casablanca
0.86

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
65%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Raja Casablanca
68%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
67%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
12%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
61%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
24%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
7%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
61%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
25%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
49%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.00 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Raja Casablanca attack 1.29 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
33%
level
32%
Raja Casablanca scores more
35%

Raja Casablanca at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca beat Youssoufia Berrechid 1-0 in Cup on March 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.