Youssoufia Berrechid 2–0 Raja Beni Mellal

Youssoufia Berrechid

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raja Beni Mellal

1/25/2020

Botola Pro · Round 14Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid46%

×Draw32%

Raja Beni Mellal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Youssoufia BerrechidExpected goals in this matchRaja Beni Mellal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.64

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.10

Raja Beni Mellal

0.64

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 72% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 16 away

0.89

creates per match

0.25

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.89

Raja Beni Mellal

0.25

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.03

Raja Beni Mellal

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw

79%

Youssoufia Berrechid or Raja Beni Mellal

68%

Draw or Raja Beni Mellal

54%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

20%

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

67%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

30%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

10%

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

47%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

14%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

69%

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.25 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

46%

level

32%

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

21%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff