Raja Beni Mellal 0–2 Youssoufia Berrechid

Raja Beni Mellal

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Youssoufia Berrechid

10/7/2020

Botola Pro · Round 29Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal35%

×Draw28%

Youssoufia Berrechid37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja Beni MellalExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.17

Raja Beni Mellal

1.14

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

0.56

creates per match

0.95

1.38

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal

0.56

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal

1.38

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw

63%

Raja Beni Mellal or Youssoufia Berrechid

72%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

65%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

14%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

68%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

32%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

11%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

69%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

33%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

49%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.56 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.14

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

35%

level

28%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

37%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff