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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
3/2/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid44%
×Draw30%
Racing de Casablanca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.17
Racing de Casablanca
0.80

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.07
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.60
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
75%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Racing de Casablanca
70%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
56%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
19%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
69%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
33%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
11%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
55%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
19%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
64%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.07 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
44%
level
30%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
25%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Racing de Casablanca

Youssoufia Berrechid beat Racing de Casablanca 1-0 in Botola 2 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.