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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
8/25/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 25Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid40%
×Draw30%
Olympique Khouribga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.11
Olympique Khouribga
0.93

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
70%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Olympique Khouribga
70%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
60%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
16%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
67%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
30%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
10%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
61%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
24%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
57%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
40%
level
30%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
30%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Olympique Khouribga

Youssoufia Berrechid beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Botola Pro on August 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.