Youssoufia Berrechid 0–1 CR Khemis Zemamra

Youssoufia Berrechid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CR Khemis Zemamra

10/21/2022

Botola 2 · Round 7Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid37%

×Draw33%

CR Khemis Zemamra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Youssoufia BerrechidExpected goals in this matchCR Khemis Zemamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.80

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.94

CR Khemis Zemamra

0.80

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.07

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.00

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.60

CR Khemis Zemamra

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw

71%

Youssoufia Berrechid or CR Khemis Zemamra

67%

Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra

63%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

14%

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

61%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

24%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

7%

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

55%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

19%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

56%

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.07 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.00 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

37%

level

33%

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff