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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 2
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1/12/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade Municipal de Berrechid (Berrechid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid52%
×Draw27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.41
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.78

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 81% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
79%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Chabab RIF Hoceima
73%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
48%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
76%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
41%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
17%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
54%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
71%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
52%
level
27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
21%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Youssoufia Berrechid 1–2 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Youssoufia Berrechid 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid (Berrechid).