Youssoufia Berrechid 0–1 Chabab Mohammédia

Youssoufia Berrechid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chabab Mohammédia

7/18/2021

Botola Pro · Round 28Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid41%

×Draw31%

Chabab Mohammédia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Youssoufia BerrechidExpected goals in this matchChabab Mohammédia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.83

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.08

Chabab Mohammédia

0.83

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

0.89

creates per match

0.63

1.03

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.89

Chabab Mohammédia

0.63

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.03

Chabab Mohammédia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw

72%

Youssoufia Berrechid or Chabab Mohammédia

69%

Draw or Chabab Mohammédia

59%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

17%

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

66%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

10%

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

56%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

20%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

60%

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

41%

level

31%

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

28%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff