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Chabab Mohammédia vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Cup 2020

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédiaadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
3/28/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia38%
×Draw24%
Youssoufia Berrechid38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.54
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.33
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.25

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.83
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.75

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
62%
Chabab Mohammédia or Youssoufia Berrechid
76%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
62%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
18%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
79%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
45%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
20%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
79%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
45%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
50%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.33 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.25 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
38%
level
24%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
38%

Chabab Mohammédia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Chabab Mohammédia 4–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

Chabab Mohammédia beat Youssoufia Berrechid 4-1 in Cup on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.