Young Sport Academy 0–0 Union Douala

Young Sport Academy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Douala

2/18/2023

Elite One · Round 13Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Young Sport Academy42%

×Draw32%

Union Douala26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Sport AcademyExpected goals in this matchUnion Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.78

Young Sport Academy

1.06

Union Douala

0.78

Young Sport Academy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 85 away

1.05

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Young Sport Academy

1.05

Union Douala

0.71

allows per match

Young Sport Academy

0.86

Union Douala

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Union Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw

74%

Young Sport Academy or Union Douala

68%

Draw or Union Douala

58%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

17%

Union Douala wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

65%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

29%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

9%

Union Douala 1+ goals

54%

Union Douala 2+ goals

18%

Union Douala 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

61%

Union Douala (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more

42%

level

32%

Union Douala scores more

26%

Young Sport Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff