Young Sport Academy 1–4 Gazelle: Result & Stats

Young Sport Academy

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Gazelle

1/12/2025

Elite One · Round 7Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Young Sport Academy36%

×Draw30%

Gazelle34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Sport AcademyExpected goals in this matchGazelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.03

Young Sport Academy

1.08

Gazelle

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 52 away

1.05

creates per match

1.21

0.86

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Young Sport Academy

1.05

Gazelle

1.21

allows per match

Young Sport Academy

0.86

Gazelle

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Gazelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw

66%

Young Sport Academy or Gazelle

70%

Draw or Gazelle

64%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

14%

Gazelle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

66%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

29%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

10%

Gazelle 1+ goals

64%

Gazelle 2+ goals

28%

Gazelle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

52%

Gazelle (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gazelle attack 1.21 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more

36%

level

30%

Gazelle scores more

34%

Young Sport Academy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff