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Young Sport Academy vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
CANC
00:00
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
4/26/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Young Sport Academy40%
×Draw30%
Fovu Club30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Sport Academy
1.14
Fovu Club
0.96

Young Sport Academy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 67 away

creates per match

Young Sport Academy
1.05
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Young Sport Academy
0.86
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw
70%
Young Sport Academy or Fovu Club
70%
Draw or Fovu Club
60%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
17%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
68%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
32%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
11%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
62%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
25%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
57%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more
40%
level
30%
Fovu Club scores more
30%

Young Sport Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Young Sport Academy host Fovu Club

April 26, 2020: Young Sport Academy take on Fovu Club in Elite One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.