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Young Sport Academy vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
CANC
00:00
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
4/12/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Young Sport Academy39%
×Draw31%
Eding Sport31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Sport Academy
1.09
Eding Sport
0.93

Young Sport Academy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 54 away

creates per match

Young Sport Academy
1.05
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

Young Sport Academy
0.86
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw
69%
Young Sport Academy or Eding Sport
69%
Draw or Eding Sport
61%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
16%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
66%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
30%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
10%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
61%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
24%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
56%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more
39%
level
31%
Eding Sport scores more
31%

Young Sport Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Young Sport Academy vs Eding Sport — Match Preview

Young Sport Academy face Eding Sport on April 12, 2020 in this Elite One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.