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Young Sport Academy vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
FT
1 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
2/23/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 24Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Young Sport Academy43%
×Draw30%
Avion Academy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Sport Academy
1.15
Avion Academy
0.84

Young Sport Academy creates 37% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 67 away

creates per match

Young Sport Academy
1.05
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Young Sport Academy
0.86
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw
73%
Young Sport Academy or Avion Academy
70%
Draw or Avion Academy
57%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
18%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
68%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
32%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
11%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
57%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
21%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
62%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more
43%
level
30%
Avion Academy scores more
27%

Young Sport Academy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Young Sport Academy 1–0 Avion Academy

Young Sport Academy beat Avion Academy 1-0 in Elite One on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda in Bamenda.