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Young Sport Academy vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
FT
4 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
12/10/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Young Sport Academy40%
×Draw30%
APEJES Academy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Sport Academy
1.15
APEJES Academy
0.94

Young Sport Academy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 67 away

creates per match

Young Sport Academy
1.05
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Young Sport Academy
0.86
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw
70%
Young Sport Academy or APEJES Academy
70%
Draw or APEJES Academy
60%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
17%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
68%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
32%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
11%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
61%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
24%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
58%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more
40%
level
30%
APEJES Academy scores more
30%

Young Sport Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Young Sport Academy 4–0 APEJES Academy

Young Sport Academy beat APEJES Academy 4-0 in Elite One on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mbouda in Mbouda.