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Young Buffaloes vs Tinyosi — Premier League 2020

Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
FT
2 – 0
Tinyosi
Tinyosi
8/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Young Buffaloes57%
×Draw25%
Tinyosi18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Buffaloes
1.62
Tinyosi
0.78

Young Buffaloes creates 108% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

Young Buffaloes
1.84
Tinyosi
0.90

allows per match

Young Buffaloes
0.66
Tinyosi
1.40

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par
Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Tinyosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw
82%
Young Buffaloes or Tinyosi
75%
Draw or Tinyosi
43%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
31%
Tinyosi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
80%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
48%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
22%
Tinyosi 1+ goals
54%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
18%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
76%
Tinyosi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more
57%
level
25%
Tinyosi scores more
18%

Young Buffaloes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Young Buffaloes 2–0 Tinyosi

Young Buffaloes beat Tinyosi 2-0 in Premier League on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.