Young Buffaloes 2–0 Milling Hotspurs

Young Buffaloes

FT

2 – 0

Milling Hotspurs

5/29/2022

Premier League · Round 23Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Young Buffaloes59%

×Draw24%

Milling Hotspurs17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young BuffaloesExpected goals in this matchMilling Hotspurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.74

Young Buffaloes

1.64

Milling Hotspurs

0.74

Young Buffaloes creates 122% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

1.84

creates per match

0.83

0.66

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Young Buffaloes

1.84

Milling Hotspurs

0.83

allows per match

Young Buffaloes

0.66

Milling Hotspurs

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Milling Hotspurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw

83%

Young Buffaloes or Milling Hotspurs

76%

Draw or Milling Hotspurs

41%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+

32%

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals

81%

Young Buffaloes 2+ goals

49%

Young Buffaloes 3+ goals

23%

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

52%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

17%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)

78%

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more

59%

level

24%

Milling Hotspurs scores more

17%

Young Buffaloes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff