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Young Buffaloes vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
FT
1 – 0
Denver
Denver
5/9/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Young Buffaloes61%
×Draw24%
Denver15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Buffaloes
1.64
Denver
0.65

Young Buffaloes creates 152% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 14 away

creates per match

Young Buffaloes
1.84
Denver
0.64

allows per match

Young Buffaloes
0.66
Denver
1.43

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw
85%
Young Buffaloes or Denver
76%
Draw or Denver
39%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
34%
Denver wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
81%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
49%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
23%
Denver 1+ goals
48%
Denver 2+ goals
14%
Denver 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
81%
Denver (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Denver away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Denver defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Denver attack 0.64 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more
61%
level
24%
Denver scores more
15%

Young Buffaloes at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Buffaloes vs Denver

Young Buffaloes beat Denver 1-0 in Premier League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.