Young Boys U19 1–3 Villarreal U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Villarreal U19

A. Amenda 45+2'

Sergio Hinojosa 90+3'

Marlone Henry 67'

Jorge Pascual 19'

10/20/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Young Boys U1925%

×Draw19%

Villarreal U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchVillarreal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.58

Young Boys U19

1.69

Villarreal U19

2.58

Villarreal U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

2.67

2.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

Villarreal U19

2.67

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

Villarreal U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Villarreal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Villarreal U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

44%

Young Boys U19 or Villarreal U19

81%

Draw or Villarreal U19

75%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

12%

Villarreal U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

82%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

50%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

24%

Villarreal U19 1+ goals

92%

Villarreal U19 2+ goals

72%

Villarreal U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Villarreal U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Villarreal U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + Villarreal U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Villarreal U19 attack 2.67 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

25%

level

19%

Villarreal U19 scores more

56%

Villarreal U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villarreal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Jorge Pascual↳ Marcos Sánchez

22'

24'

45+2'

46'

46'

A. Triantafillidis← Y. Jungo

54'

A. Appiah← E. Rossier

60'

Alejandro Jiménez← Jon García

61'

Rodrigo Alonso← Joan Torrents

67'

Marlone Henry

73'

A. Ogouvide← P. Näf

73'

Pablo Navarro← Antonio Pacheco

74'

A. Amenda

84'

Alex Jimenez

86'

J. Bomo← P. Essay

90+1'

T. Geralnik

90+1'

Sergio Hinojosa← T. Geralnik

90+3'

Sergio Hinojosa↳ Jorge Pascual

Young

Villarreal

1

Jörgensen

2

A

Sánchez

19

⚽

Henry

33

Wade

14

Gelardo

20

▼

Pacheco

10

▼

Geralnik

16

▼

García

24

Agustina

9

⚽A

Pascual

18

▼

Torrents

1

Bajrami

20

⚽

Amenda

5

Crnovrsan

11

▼

Jungo

2

▼

Näf

3

Rhodes

17

Donno

8

A

▼

Jakob

6

▼

Essay

19

Donno

10

▼

Rossier

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

46'▲M. Berisha←▼N. Jakob

46'▲A. Triantafillidis←▼Y. Jungo

54'▲A. Appiah←▼E. Rossier

73'▲A. Ogouvide←▼P. Näf

86'▲J. Bomo←▼P. Essay

Young Boys U19 substitutes

13Berisha7Triantafillidis9Appiah14Ogouvide12Bomo15Murith18Castro

Manager: Pere Martí

60'▲Alejandro Jiménez←▼Jon García

61'▲Rodrigo Alonso←▼Joan Torrents

73'▲Pablo Navarro←▼Antonio Pacheco

90+1'▲Sergio Hinojosa←▼T. Geralnik

Villarreal U19 substitutes

7Jiménez8Alonso39Navarro21Hinojosa25Nicolau32Saavedra22Mateo