Young Boys II 6–1 Terre Sainte: Result & Stats

Young Boys II

FT

6 – 1

Terre Sainte

6/19/2021

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Young Boys II77%

×Draw13%

Terre Sainte10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys IIExpected goals in this matchTerre Sainte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.26

1.15

Young Boys II

3.26

Terre Sainte

1.15

Young Boys II creates 183% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

4.36

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Young Boys II

4.36

Terre Sainte

1.23

allows per match

Young Boys II

1.07

Terre Sainte

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Terre Sainte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw

90%

Young Boys II or Terre Sainte

87%

Draw or Terre Sainte

23%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+

58%

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals

96%

Young Boys II 2+ goals

83%

Young Boys II 3+ goals

61%

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

68%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

32%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)

88%

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 4.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 4.36 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 3.26

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Young Boys II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Young Boys II scores more

77%

level

13%

Terre Sainte scores more

10%

Young Boys II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff