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Young Boys II vs Servette II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Young Boys II
Young Boys II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Servette II
Servette II
11/18/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Young Boys II49%
×Draw22%
Servette II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Boys II
1.90
Servette II
1.40

Young Boys II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Young Boys II
1.92
Servette II
1.24

allows per match

Young Boys II
1.56
Servette II
1.88

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw
72%
Young Boys II or Servette II
78%
Draw or Servette II
51%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+
28%
Servette II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals
85%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
56%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
29%
Servette II 1+ goals
75%
Servette II 2+ goals
41%
Servette II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)
63%
Servette II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 1.92 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Servette II attack 1.24 + Young Boys II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Young Boys II scores more
49%
level
22%
Servette II scores more
28%

Young Boys II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Young Boys II 0–2 Servette II

Servette II beat Young Boys II 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.