Young Boys II 4–3 Breitenrain: Result & Stats

Young Boys II

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Breitenrain

8/11/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Young Boys II46%

×Draw22%

Breitenrain31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys IIExpected goals in this matchBreitenrain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.53

Young Boys II

1.90

Breitenrain

1.53

Young Boys II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 102 away

1.92

creates per match

1.50

1.56

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Young Boys II

1.92

Breitenrain

1.50

allows per match

Young Boys II

1.56

Breitenrain

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par

Breitenrain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Breitenrain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw

69%

Young Boys II or Breitenrain

78%

Draw or Breitenrain

54%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+

26%

Breitenrain wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals

85%

Young Boys II 2+ goals

56%

Young Boys II 3+ goals

29%

Breitenrain 1+ goals

78%

Breitenrain 2+ goals

45%

Breitenrain 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)

60%

Breitenrain (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Breitenrain away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 1.92 + Breitenrain defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Breitenrain attack 1.50 + Young Boys II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Young Boys II scores more

46%

level

22%

Breitenrain scores more

31%

Young Boys II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff