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Young Apostles vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Young Apostles
Young Apostles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
4/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Wenchi Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Young Apostles52%
×Draw30%
Samartex19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Apostles
1.27
Samartex
0.64

Young Apostles creates 98% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Young Apostles
1.41
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Young Apostles
0.74
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Young Apostles+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Apostles ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Young Apostles or draw
81%
Young Apostles or Samartex
70%
Draw or Samartex
48%

Winning margin

Young Apostles wins by 2+
24%
Samartex wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Young Apostles 1+ goals
72%
Young Apostles 2+ goals
36%
Young Apostles 3+ goals
14%
Samartex 1+ goals
47%
Samartex 2+ goals
14%
Samartex 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Apostles (draw refunded)
73%
Samartex (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Apostles at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Apostles attack 1.41 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Samartex attack 0.54 + Young Apostles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Young Apostles scores more
52%
level
30%
Samartex scores more
19%

Young Apostles at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Young Apostles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Apostles vs Samartex

Young Apostles and Samartex drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Wenchi Sports Stadium in Wenchi.