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Young Apostles vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Young Apostles
Young Apostles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
4/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Wenchi Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Young Apostles55%
×Draw28%
Legon Cities18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Apostles
1.40
Legon Cities
0.67

Young Apostles creates 109% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

creates per match

Young Apostles
1.41
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Young Apostles
0.74
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Young Apostles+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Apostles ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Young Apostles or draw
82%
Young Apostles or Legon Cities
72%
Draw or Legon Cities
45%

Winning margin

Young Apostles wins by 2+
27%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Young Apostles 1+ goals
75%
Young Apostles 2+ goals
41%
Young Apostles 3+ goals
17%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
49%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
15%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Apostles (draw refunded)
75%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Apostles at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Apostles attack 1.41 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Young Apostles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Young Apostles scores more
55%
level
28%
Legon Cities scores more
18%

Young Apostles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Young Apostles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Apostles vs Legon Cities

Young Apostles and Legon Cities drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Wenchi Sports Stadium in Wenchi.