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Young Africans vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KMC
KMC
M. Mpia Nzengeli 4'
9/29/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Young Africans76%
×Draw17%
KMC7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.19
KMC
0.50

Young Africans creates 338% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 37 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.79
KMC
0.62

allows per match

Young Africans
0.38
KMC
1.59

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
93%
Young Africans or KMC
83%
Draw or KMC
24%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
51%
KMC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
89%
Young Africans 2+ goals
64%
Young Africans 3+ goals
37%
KMC 1+ goals
39%
KMC 2+ goals
9%
KMC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
91%
KMC (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.38 · 29 matches

KMC away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.79 + KMC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.19

KMC attack 0.62 + Young Africans defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Young Africans scores more
76%
level
17%
KMC scores more
7%

Young Africans at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Mpia Nzengeli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Africans vs KMC

Young Africans beat KMC 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Mpia Nzengeli (4').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.