Young Africans 3–1 Gwambina: Result & Stats

Young Africans

FT

3 – 1

Gwambina

4/20/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 24Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Young Africans65%

×Draw21%

Gwambina14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young AfricansExpected goals in this matchGwambina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.73

Young Africans

1.90

Gwambina

0.73

Young Africans creates 160% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

2.27

creates per match

0.94

0.52

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Young Africans

2.27

Gwambina

0.94

allows per match

Young Africans

0.52

Gwambina

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par

Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Gwambina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw

86%

Young Africans or Gwambina

79%

Draw or Gwambina

35%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+

39%

Gwambina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals

85%

Young Africans 2+ goals

56%

Young Africans 3+ goals

29%

Gwambina 1+ goals

52%

Gwambina 2+ goals

17%

Gwambina 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)

83%

Gwambina (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.27 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Young Africans defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Young Africans scores more

65%

level

21%

Gwambina scores more

14%

Young Africans at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff