Young Africans 2–1 Biashara United: Result & Stats

Young Africans

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Biashara United

12/26/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 10Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Young Africans66%

×Draw23%

Biashara United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young AfricansExpected goals in this matchBiashara United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.54

Young Africans

1.73

Biashara United

0.54

Young Africans creates 220% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

2.27

creates per match

0.57

0.52

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Young Africans

2.27

Biashara United

0.57

allows per match

Young Africans

0.52

Biashara United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par

Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Biashara United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw

89%

Young Africans or Biashara United

77%

Draw or Biashara United

34%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+

39%

Biashara United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals

82%

Young Africans 2+ goals

52%

Young Africans 3+ goals

25%

Biashara United 1+ goals

42%

Biashara United 2+ goals

10%

Biashara United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)

86%

Biashara United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.27 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Young Africans defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Young Africans scores more

66%

level

23%

Biashara United scores more

11%

Young Africans at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff