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Young Africans vs Al Ahly — CAF Champions League 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
1/31/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 4Amaan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Young Africans49%
×Draw27%
Al Ahly23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.40
Al Ahly
0.87

Young Africans creates 61% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 46 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.19
Al Ahly
1.26

allows per match

Young Africans
0.48
Al Ahly
0.61

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
77%
Young Africans or Al Ahly
73%
Draw or Al Ahly
51%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
24%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
75%
Young Africans 2+ goals
41%
Young Africans 3+ goals
17%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
58%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
22%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
68%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.19 + Al Ahly defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al Ahly attack 1.26 + Young Africans defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Young Africans scores more
49%
level
27%
Al Ahly scores more
23%

Young Africans at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Young Africans 1–1 Al Ahly

Young Africans and Al Ahly drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Amaan Stadium in Zanzibar City.