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York vs Oldham — League Two 2024

York
York
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
3/29/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 38York Community Stadium
49%
Oldham
model favours
24%27%49%

York have scored in 35 games running

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

York24%
×Draw27%
Oldham49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
0.90
Oldham
1.40

Oldham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

creates per match

York
0.60
Oldham
1.20

allows per match

York
1.60
Oldham
1.20

finishing

York+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

York or draw
51%
York or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
76%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
8%
Oldham wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
59%
York 2+ goals
23%
York 3+ goals
6%
Oldham 1+ goals
75%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
33%
Oldham (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.60 + Oldham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Oldham attack 1.20 + York defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

York scores more
24%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
49%

Oldham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York win 83% of their home games
  • York and Oldham have never met before
  • York score first in only 34% of matches
  • 44% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LWDWW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Oldham

March 29, 2027: York take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Oldham at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.