York 1–1 Oldham: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

W. Davies 70'

M. Fondop-Talum 61'

2/20/2024

League #43 · Round 35LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

York55%

×Draw23%

Oldham23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.11

York

1.85

Oldham

1.11

York creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

2.40

creates per match

1.30

0.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

York

2.40

Oldham

1.30

allows per match

York

0.92

Oldham

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

York or draw

77%

York or Oldham

77%

Draw or Oldham

45%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

31%

Oldham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

84%

York 2+ goals

55%

York 3+ goals

28%

Oldham 1+ goals

67%

Oldham 2+ goals

30%

Oldham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

71%

Oldham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.40 + Oldham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Oldham attack 1.30 + York defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

York scores more

55%

level

23%

Oldham scores more

23%

York at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

T. Conlon

52'

D. Green← O. Hammond

61'

M. Fondop-Talum

64'

L. John-Lewis← P. McLaughlin

70'

W. Davies

78'

F. Barnes← B. Chadwick

90'

D. Amos

York

Oldham

13

4

16

3

14

5

21

32

26

▼

Hammond

24

Garner

9

⚽

38

15

2

24

37

30

6

▼

McLaughli

18

Batty

27

Allen

19

▼

Chadwick

7

⚽

Davies

Manager: N. Ardley

64'▲L. John-Lewis←▼P. McLaughlin

78'▲F. Barnes←▼B. Chadwick

York substitutes

14John-Lewis17Barnes3Crookes4Duckworth35Watson

Manager: M. Mellon

52'▲D. Green←▼O. Hammond

Oldham substitutes

15Green1Norman8Lundstram17McGahey19Gardner

York 1 – 1 Oldham

York and Oldham drew 1-1 in League #43 on February 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Fondop-Talum (61'), W. Davies (70').

The match was played at LNER Community Stadium in York, North Yorkshire.

York vs Oldham — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

York 1 – 1 Oldham