York 3–2 Hartlepool: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hartlepool

J. Stones 90' (pen)

H. Boateng 84'

A. Newby 19'

C. Caton 90'

R. McNally 39'

2/11/2026

League #43 · Round 32York Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

York58%

×Draw21%

Hartlepool21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.11

York

2.01

Hartlepool

1.11

York creates 81% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

2.30

creates per match

1.15

1.08

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

York

2.30

Hartlepool

1.15

allows per match

York

1.08

Hartlepool

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

York or draw

79%

York or Hartlepool

79%

Draw or Hartlepool

42%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

35%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

87%

York 2+ goals

59%

York 3+ goals

32%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

67%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

30%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

74%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.30 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.01

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

York scores more

58%

level

21%

Hartlepool scores more

21%

York at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Newby

39'

R. McNally↳ J. Miley

61'

N. Sheron

67'

O. Banks← J. Grey

72'

C. Caton← A. Reid

77'

B. Brookes← J. King

77'

D. Batty← A. Hunt

79'

G. Holohan← L. Charman

84'

H. Boateng↳ O. Banks

87'

R. Fallowfield← A. Newby

88'

A. Nathaniel-George← O. Pearce

88'

D. Johnson← J. Hunter

88'

P. Brown← J. Benn

89'

S. Folarin← A. Campbell

90+6'

90+7'

90+13'

90+14'

90'

90'

J. StonesPenalty

York

Hartlepool

23

Hayes

6

⚽

McNally

5

Kouogun

2

▼

Benn

14

Sheron

28

Daly

18

A

Miley

15

▼

Hunter

19

▼

Reid

10

▼

Campbell

11

▼

Charman

1

Male

15

▼

27

29

3

8

▼

Hunt

21

⚽

Boateng

30

⚽

▼

Newby

12

▼

Grey

9

⚽

Stones

10

▼

Pearce

67'▲O. Banks←▼J. Grey

77'▲B. Brookes←▼J. King

77'▲D. Batty←▼A. Hunt

87'▲R. Fallowfield←▼A. Newby

88'▲A. Nathaniel-George←▼O. Pearce

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy14Brookes2Fallowfield5Howe18Batty28Banks11Nathaniel-George

72'▲C. Caton←▼A. Reid

79'▲G. Holohan←▼L. Charman

88'▲D. Johnson←▼J. Hunter

88'▲P. Brown←▼J. Benn

89'▲S. Folarin←▼A. Campbell

Hartlepool substitutes

40Smith8Ferguson9Johnson17Folarin24Brown7Holohan35Caton

League #43: York 3–2 Hartlepool

York beat Hartlepool 3-2 in League #43 on February 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Newby (19'), R. McNally (39'), H. Boateng (84'), C. Caton (90'), J. Stones (90' pen).

The match was played at York Community Stadium in York.

York vs Hartlepool — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: York 3–2 Hartlepool