York 1–0 Gateshead: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gateshead

M. Armstrong 22'

1/1/2025

League #43 · Round 25LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

York54%

×Draw22%

Gateshead24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchGateshead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.19

York

1.90

Gateshead

1.19

York creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 10 away

2.30

creates per match

1.30

1.08

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

York

2.30

Gateshead

1.30

allows per match

York

1.08

Gateshead

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Gateshead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Gateshead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

York or draw

76%

York or Gateshead

78%

Draw or Gateshead

46%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

31%

Gateshead wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

85%

York 2+ goals

56%

York 3+ goals

29%

Gateshead 1+ goals

70%

Gateshead 2+ goals

33%

Gateshead 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

69%

Gateshead (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Gateshead away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.30 + Gateshead defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gateshead attack 1.30 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

York scores more

54%

level

22%

Gateshead scores more

24%

York at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Armstrong↳ O. Pearce

45'

R. Aguiar

61'

A. Nathaniel-George← D. Batty

61'

T. Sinclair← D. Ajiboye

64'

W. McGowan← T. Newton

76'

M. Fagan-Walcott

78'

L. John-Lewis← D. Akinyemi

78'

R. Fallowfield← R. Aguiar

79'

A. Hunt

79'

K. Adom← J. Williams

79'

C. Colkett← L. Humbles

87'

L. Hannant

90+2'

R. Booty

90+1'

D. Jones← J. Grayson

York

Gateshead

29

Mason

18

▼

Grayson

28

▼

8

19

14

11

23

▼

Newton

16

Radcliffe

15

▼

45

1

5

23

28

18

▼

Batty

8

Hunt

20

▼

Aguiar

15

⚽

Armstrong

9

▼

Akinyemi

10

A

Pearce

30

▼

Ajiboye

Manager: A. Hinshelwood

61'▲A. Nathaniel-George←▼D. Batty

61'▲T. Sinclair←▼D. Ajiboye

78'▲L. John-Lewis←▼D. Akinyemi

78'▲R. Fallowfield←▼R. Aguiar

York substitutes

11Nathaniel-George7Sinclair14John-Lewis2Fallowfield31King19Chadwick16Watson

Manager: C. Magnay

64'▲W. McGowan←▼T. Newton

79'▲K. Adom←▼J. Williams

79'▲C. Colkett←▼L. Humbles

90+1'▲D. Jones←▼J. Grayson

Gateshead substitutes

24McGowan12Adom34Colkett46Jones2Tinkler5Richardson43Leech