York 0–1 Eastleigh: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eastleigh

L. Croll 83'

4/6/2024

League #43 · Round 44LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

York70%

×Draw19%

Eastleigh11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchEastleigh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.71

York

2.12

Eastleigh

0.71

York creates 199% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

2.40

creates per match

0.50

0.92

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

York

2.40

Eastleigh

0.50

allows per match

York

0.92

Eastleigh

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Eastleigh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Eastleigh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

York or draw

89%

York or Eastleigh

81%

Draw or Eastleigh

30%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

45%

Eastleigh wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

88%

York 2+ goals

62%

York 3+ goals

35%

Eastleigh 1+ goals

51%

Eastleigh 2+ goals

16%

Eastleigh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

86%

Eastleigh (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Eastleigh away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.40 + Eastleigh defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Eastleigh attack 0.50 + York defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

York scores more

70%

level

19%

Eastleigh scores more

11%

York at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Taylor

56'

L. John-Lewis← S. Fishburn

56'

Z. Siziba← Maziar Kouhyar

61'

L. Hodson← C. Maguire

72'

73'

74'

78'

78'

83'

84'

84'

90+7'

90+3'

Quevin Castro← M. Armstrong

York

Eastleigh

1

McDonnell

15

⚽

33

12

6

8

▼

Taylor

16

Nwabuokei

17

▼

11

9

20

38

15

2

24

11

▼

Kouhyar

18

Batty

29

Hunt

39

▼

Armstrong

9

Akinyemi

19

Chadwick

40

▼

Fishburn

Manager: A. Hinshelwood

56'▲L. John-Lewis←▼S. Fishburn

56'▲Z. Siziba←▼Maziar Kouhyar

90+3'▲Quevin Castro←▼M. Armstrong

York substitutes

14John-Lewis23Siziba10Castro6McLaughlin35Campbell

Manager: R. Hill

61'▲L. Hodson←▼C. Maguire

72'▲B. Reeves←▼J. Taylor

Eastleigh substitutes

14Hodson7Reeves4Atangana13Scott30Merry