York 1–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chesterfield

M. Hancox 79'

J. King 9'

10/25/2022

League #43 · Round 16LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

York45%

×Draw23%

Chesterfield31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.41

York

1.74

Chesterfield

1.41

York creates 23% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

2.30

creates per match

1.73

1.08

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

York

2.30

Chesterfield

1.73

allows per match

York

1.08

Chesterfield

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

York or draw

69%

York or Chesterfield

77%

Draw or Chesterfield

55%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

24%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

82%

York 2+ goals

52%

York 3+ goals

25%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

76%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

59%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.30 + Chesterfield defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Chesterfield attack 1.73 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

York scores more

45%

level

23%

Chesterfield scores more

31%

York at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

38'

65'

68'

70'

L. Mandeville← J. Uchegbulam

70'

A. Dobra← A. Asante

72'

M. Hancox← O. Dyson

72'

N. Thomas← L. James

77'

M. Duku← L. John-Lewis

79'

M. Hancox

York

Chesterfield

1

5

12

3

35

28

▼

Banks

20

⚽

King

26

Oldaker

18

▼

Uchegbula

19

▼

9

1

12

2

4

17

21

11

19

8

▼

Dyson

14

▼

John-Lewi

23

▼

James

Manager: J. Askey

72'▲M. Hancox←▼O. Dyson

72'▲N. Thomas←▼L. James

77'▲M. Duku←▼L. John-Lewis

York substitutes

16Hancox22Thomas27Duku5Kerr18Whitley

Manager: P. Cook

65'▲T. Whelan←▼O. Banks

70'▲L. Mandeville←▼J. Uchegbulam

70'▲A. Dobra←▼A. Asante

Chesterfield substitutes

30Whelan7Mandeville17Dobra10Cooper15Cook