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York vs Boston United — League #50 2026

York
York
CANC
14:00
Boston United
Boston United
5/3/2021League #50League #50 · North - 38Bootham Crescent

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

York40%
×Draw28%
Boston United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.25
Boston United
1.10

York creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

York
1.00
Boston United
1.00

allows per match

York
1.20
Boston United
1.50

finishing

York+0.00on par
Boston United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Boston United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

York or draw
68%
York or Boston United
72%
Draw or Boston United
60%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
17%
Boston United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
71%
York 2+ goals
36%
York 3+ goals
13%
Boston United 1+ goals
67%
Boston United 2+ goals
30%
Boston United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
55%
Boston United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Boston United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 1.00 + Boston United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Boston United attack 1.00 + York defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

York scores more
40%
level
28%
Boston United scores more
32%

York at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

York face Boston United (League #50)

League #50 returns with York hosting Boston United. Match starts May 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

York host Boston United at Bootham Crescent.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.