Boston United 0–1 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Boston United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

York

B. Brookes 48'

4/3/2026

League #43 · Round 42Jakemans Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boston United39%

×Draw27%

York34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston UnitedExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Boston United

1.29

York

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 48 away

1.50

creates per match

1.63

0.75

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Boston United

1.50

York

1.63

allows per match

Boston United

0.75

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston United+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston United ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boston United or draw

66%

Boston United or York

73%

Draw or York

61%

Winning margin

Boston United wins by 2+

17%

York wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boston United 1+ goals

72%

Boston United 2+ goals

37%

Boston United 3+ goals

14%

York 1+ goals

70%

York 2+ goals

33%

York 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Boston United (draw refunded)

53%

York (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston United attack 1.50 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

York attack 1.63 + Boston United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boston United scores more

39%

level

27%

York scores more

34%

Boston United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boston United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

J. King

48'

B. Brookes

55'

G. Sloggett

68'

J. Hiwula← L. Barrington

74'

J. Grey← O. Banks

78'

T. Cursons← D. Hill

80'

A. Raikhy← G. Sloggett

80'

M. Lavinier← C. Teale

90'

R. Fallowfield← B. Brookes

90'

D. Batty← A. Hunt

Boston

York

1

4

29

3

15

8

▼

Hunt

21

Boateng

14

⚽

▼

Brookes

28

▼

9

10

21

4

▼

Teale

20

Rooney

23

Grimes

8

▼

Hill

6

▼

Sloggett

19

Richards

7

▼

10

17

14

68'▲J. Hiwula←▼L. Barrington

78'▲T. Cursons←▼D. Hill

80'▲A. Raikhy←▼G. Sloggett

80'▲M. Lavinier←▼C. Teale

Boston United substitutes

13Chadwick9Hazel16Hiwula18Cursons22Raikhy26Gallagher40Lavinier

74'▲J. Grey←▼O. Banks

90'▲R. Fallowfield←▼B. Brookes

90'▲D. Batty←▼A. Hunt

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy2Fallowfield5Howe12Grey18Batty22Olley30Newby