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York United vs Valour — Canadian Premier League 2020

York United
York United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Valour
Valour
9/14/2024Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 10York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

York United44%
×Draw25%
Valour31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York United
1.60
Valour
1.30

York United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 74 away

creates per match

York United
1.39
Valour
1.26

allows per match

York United
1.34
Valour
1.81

finishing

York United+0.00on par
Valour+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

Valour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

York United or draw
69%
York United or Valour
75%
Draw or Valour
56%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+
23%
Valour wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals
80%
York United 2+ goals
47%
York United 3+ goals
22%
Valour 1+ goals
73%
Valour 2+ goals
37%
Valour 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)
59%
Valour (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

Valour away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 1.39 + Valour defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Valour attack 1.26 + York United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

York United scores more
44%
level
25%
Valour scores more
31%

York United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: York United vs Valour

York United and Valour drew 1-1 in Canadian Premier League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium in Toronto, Ontario.