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York United vs Saint-Laurent — Canadian Championship 2018

York United
York United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saint-Laurent
Saint-Laurent
5/10/2026Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · PreliminaryYork Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

York United71%
×Draw16%
Saint-Laurent13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York United
2.83
Saint-Laurent
1.17

York United creates 142% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

York United
2.33
Saint-Laurent
1.00

allows per match

York United
1.33
Saint-Laurent
3.33

finishing

York United+0.00on par
Saint-Laurent+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

Saint-Laurent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

York United or draw
87%
York United or Saint-Laurent
84%
Draw or Saint-Laurent
29%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+
50%
Saint-Laurent wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals
94%
York United 2+ goals
77%
York United 3+ goals
53%
Saint-Laurent 1+ goals
69%
Saint-Laurent 2+ goals
33%
Saint-Laurent 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)
84%
Saint-Laurent (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Saint-Laurent away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 2.33 + Saint-Laurent defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Saint-Laurent attack 1.00 + York United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

York United scores more
71%
level
16%
Saint-Laurent scores more
13%

York United at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: York United vs Saint-Laurent

Saint-Laurent beat York United 1-0 in Canadian Championship on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium.