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York United vs AS Blainville — Canadian Championship 2018

York United
York United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Blainville
AS Blainville
5/22/2019Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · 1st Qualifying RoundYork Lions Stadium (Toronto, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

York United51%
×Draw25%
AS Blainville24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York United
1.56
AS Blainville
0.97

York United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

York United
2.33
AS Blainville
0.60

allows per match

York United
1.33
AS Blainville
0.80

finishing

York United+0.00on par
AS Blainville+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

AS Blainville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

York United or draw
76%
York United or AS Blainville
75%
Draw or AS Blainville
49%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+
26%
AS Blainville wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals
79%
York United 2+ goals
46%
York United 3+ goals
21%
AS Blainville 1+ goals
62%
AS Blainville 2+ goals
25%
AS Blainville 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)
68%
AS Blainville (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

AS Blainville away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 2.33 + AS Blainville defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

AS Blainville attack 0.60 + York United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

York United scores more
51%
level
25%
AS Blainville scores more
24%

York United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canadian Championship: York United 1–0 AS Blainville

York United beat AS Blainville 1-0 in Canadian Championship on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium (Toronto, Ontario).