York City LFC 3–1 Wroxham W: Result & Stats

York City LFC

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wroxham W

11/23/2025

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundLNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

York City LFC65%

×Draw17%

Wroxham W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

York City LFCExpected goals in this matchWroxham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.50

York City LFC

2.87

Wroxham W

1.50

York City LFC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.40

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

York City LFC

2.40

Wroxham W

2.00

allows per match

York City LFC

1.00

Wroxham W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York City LFC+0.00on par

Wroxham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York City LFC ↓

Wroxham W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

York City LFC or draw

82%

York City LFC or Wroxham W

83%

Draw or Wroxham W

35%

Winning margin

York City LFC wins by 2+

45%

Wroxham W wins by 2+

Team goals

York City LFC 1+ goals

94%

York City LFC 2+ goals

77%

York City LFC 3+ goals

53%

Wroxham W 1+ goals

78%

Wroxham W 2+ goals

44%

Wroxham W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

York City LFC (draw refunded)

78%

Wroxham W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

York City LFC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Wroxham W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

York City LFC attack 2.40 + Wroxham W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.87

Wroxham W attack 2.00 + York City LFC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

York City LFC scores more

65%

level

17%

Wroxham W scores more

18%

York City LFC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "York City LFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: York City LFC vs Wroxham W

York City LFC beat Wroxham W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at LNER Community Stadium in York.

York City LFC vs Wroxham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: York City LFC vs Wroxham W